{ "schemaVersion": 1, "publishedAt": "2026-11-04", "reviewedAt": "2026-11-04", "selection": { "text": "This initial selection covers the six largest country-level requirements at the launch of OCHA’s Global Humanitarian Overview 2026: the occupied Palestinian territory, Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Ukraine and Afghanistan. Regional refugee plans are excluded from the comparison to avoid mixing geographic scopes. Appeal size is a transparent starting point for coverage, not a ranking of human suffering, current funding received or all unmet need. Later revisions do not automatically change this initial selection.", "source": { "id": "gho", "title": "Global Humanitarian Overview 2026: At a glance", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/cdccb8f4-11b0-4999-bb3f-d1c54c8ff21c/GHO2026_At_a_glance_EN.pdf", "date": "2025-12-08", "scope": "Launch requirements used only for the initial selection; later plans can revise them." } }, "crises": [ { "slug": "sudan", "name": "Sudan", "region": "Africa", "description": "Sudan’s humanitarian crisis: conflict, hunger, displacement, access constraints and the 2026 priorities of DG ECHO and Sida.", "summary": "War, hunger and repeated displacement are overlapping with the collapse of essential services. The response must reach people facing the most severe deprivation while supporting local responders and accounting for very different conditions in conflict, displacement and return areas.", "appeal": { "label": "Country appeal", "value": "US$2.9 billion", "basis": "Rounded requirement at the December 2025 launch.", "source": "gho" }, "sources": [ { "id": "gho", "title": "Global Humanitarian Overview 2026: At a glance", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/cdccb8f4-11b0-4999-bb3f-d1c54c8ff21c/GHO2026_At_a_glance_EN.pdf", "date": "2025-12-08", "scope": "Launch requirements used only for the initial selection; later plans can revise them." }, { "id": "plan", "title": "Sudan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026 (April 2026)", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/sudan/sudan-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-2026-april-2026-enar", "date": null, "scope": "Crisis overview and planning framework; dated April 2026 edition.", "dateLabel": "April 2026" }, { "id": "echo", "title": "Sudan: humanitarian needs and EU response", "publisher": "DG ECHO", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/africa/sudan_en", "date": "2026-04-15", "scope": "Country factsheet; its update date does not date every underlying estimate." }, { "id": "sida", "title": "Humanitarian Crisis Analysis 2026: Sudan", "publisher": "Sida", "url": "https://cdn.sida.se/app/uploads/2026/04/22144120/Sudan-HCA-2026_March-2026-Short.pdf", "date": "2026-03-31", "scope": "Initial allocation rationale and partner priorities, particularly section 4." }, { "id": "famine", "title": "Joint ministerial statement on the risk of famine in Sudan", "publisher": "European Commission and signatory governments", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/news/joint-ministerial-statement-risk-famine-sudan-2026-10-23_en", "date": "2026-10-23", "scope": "Later policy statement on hunger, humanitarian access and locally led responses." }, { "id": "regional", "title": "Sudan Regional Refugee Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "UNHCR and partners", "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/121204", "date": "2026-02-20", "scope": "Regional refugee and host-community response, separate from the Sudan country appeal." }, { "id": "fcdo", "title": "FCDO country and regional ODA programme allocations, 2026/27–2028/29", "publisher": "UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office", "url": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2026-07-16/hcws287", "date": "2026-07-16", "scope": "Country rows describe the wider ODA portfolio; allocations are not exclusively humanitarian, sector awards or open calls." }, { "id": "budget", "title": "Sudan HNRP 2026: sector requirements, printed page 2", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/fbc18517-e512-41f0-abf5-d362d2657c5b/HNRP_2026_Sudan_EN.pdf#page=2", "date": null, "scope": "Full and prioritised country-cluster requests, rounded to US$ million. The separate refugee response inside Sudan is not a sector row.", "dateLabel": "2026 HNRP (April publication page)" } ], "sections": [ { "id": "context", "heading": "Conflict dynamics and humanitarian consequences", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The April response plan describes diverging conditions: reduced fighting enabled returns to Khartoum and Aj Jazirah, while intensified hostilities in Darfur and Kordofan exposed communities to severe violence and deprivation. Damaged markets, health facilities and water systems link the protection crisis to hunger and disease.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "DG ECHO records 33.7 million people requiring humanitarian assistance in 2026. Its response addresses displaced people, refugees and host communities, with particular attention to children and pregnant or breastfeeding women affected by acute malnutrition.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "text": "A single national narrative is insufficient for targeting. Separate people trapped in active conflict, newly or repeatedly displaced households, and people returning to damaged neighbourhoods. Each group needs a different account of access, service availability and protection risks. Returns alone do not demonstrate that basic needs have been met.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "needs", "heading": "Geographic and sector priorities", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The response plan identifies explosive remnants, interrupted communications, damaged infrastructure and liquidity shortages alongside seasonal flooding and disease outbreaks. These constraints affect both survival needs and the feasibility of delivery.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Food assistance should be connected to malnutrition screening and treatment, safe water, primary care and protection referrals in the same catchment areas. A nutrition referral has limited value if transport, medicines or receiving facilities are unavailable. Map the full service pathway and the groups who cannot use it safely.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "echo" ] }, { "text": "In return areas, distinguish emergency repair of essential services from longer recovery investments. In displacement sites, assess host-community pressure and the risk that assistance excludes people outside formal sites. Local organisations and community groups should help define priorities and accessible feedback arrangements.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "funding-logic", "heading": "What the funding priorities reveal", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The HNRP narrows its scope to the most critical life-saving activities in the highest-severity localities and pockets of severe need elsewhere. It describes resilience, rehabilitation and livelihood support shifting towards development partners. Its lower overall requirement therefore reflects enforced boundaries around the response, even as humanitarian need has increased.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "This creates a financing gap between immediate survival and preventing the next deterioration. A household outside the narrowly prioritised caseload may still lose purchasing power, productive assets or access to healthcare. If complementary support is absent, people excluded today can enter a higher-severity category later. A fully funded prioritised request would reduce immediate suffering, but it would not mean the country’s wider humanitarian and recovery requirements had been met.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "The sector table also reveals choices within that reduced envelope. From the rounded published figures, protection retains about 97% of its full requirement, compared with about 66% for food security and livelihoods. This is an arithmetic comparison of requested budgets, not a measure of funding received, population coverage or relative importance. The implication is that donors should assess both the size of an envelope and which functions the prioritisation exercise protects.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "budget" ] } ] }, { "id": "donors", "heading": "Documented donor priorities", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "DG ECHO’s country response includes health, nutrition, food and cash assistance, WASH, shelter, protection and education. It also supports operational access through logistics and advocates removal of visa and customs obstacles. These are response priorities, rather than a general invitation to apply.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "text": "Sida’s March allocation analysis favours adaptable, complementary partners able to work across sectors in high-severity and hard-to-reach areas, including through local NGOs and Emergency Response Rooms. Flexible funding is intended to let partners respond as conflict, displacement and returns change.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "text": "The 23 October joint ministerial statement calls for more funding, cross-border and cross-line access, protection of aid personnel, support for the winter cropping season and stronger locally led responses. It is a policy signal, not evidence of an available allocation.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "famine" ] }, { "text": "An evidence-based donor case should explain why a particular route and partner configuration can reach a specific severe need. Show who controls delivery decisions, what resources reach local responders, and how the programme changes if a route closes. A broad list of sectors does not establish operational fit.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "cash-economy", "heading": "Cash, supply routes and the economics of access", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The plan describes cash as strongly preferred in community consultations while recording liquidity shortages, fragmented financial services and unequal access for female-headed households. It also distinguishes multi-purpose cash from cluster-specific transfers and group cash supporting community responses.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Cash and in-kind assistance address different constraints. Where goods can enter a market and households can receive and use transfers safely, cash can preserve choice and reduce the burden of transporting commodities. Where routes are blocked, supply is thin or the real value of a transfer falls, additional cash alone cannot restore availability. The relevant comparison is the ability to meet a household’s needs after fees, travel, waiting and risk, rather than the face value of a transfer.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Long transport routes, insecure storage and interruptions also change the value of speed. A nominally cheaper central procurement arrangement may arrive after a critical treatment or planting window. Conversely, buying locally can compete with households if scarce supply cannot expand. Flexible funding has operational value when it allows a different route, transfer modality or service configuration as these conditions change; flexibility without visibility on exclusion or quality is insufficient.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ] } ] }, { "id": "access", "heading": "Access, delivery and protection constraints", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The October statement identifies obstructed assistance, permit and customs delays, and attacks on civilian infrastructure as barriers to famine prevention. Its access requests include air access to Darfur and arrangements for medical evacuation of humanitarian personnel.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "famine" ] }, { "text": "Budget for feasible procurement routes, lead times, communications and monitoring, rather than treating them as overhead assumptions. Set thresholds for changing distribution locations or modalities. Remote verification must account for excluded households and risks to the people collecting information; sensitive protection data should not be gathered merely to demonstrate reach.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "regional", "heading": "Regional displacement and funding boundaries", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "UNHCR’s regional plan covers refugees and affected host communities across seven asylum countries. It is a distinct planning framework from the humanitarian response inside Sudan.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "regional" ] }, { "text": "A proposal in Chad, Egypt or another host country needs evidence and partnerships relevant to that country. Do not add country and regional appeal requirements or people counts as though they describe mutually exclusive populations. Cross-border assistance into Sudan and refugee assistance outside Sudan also have different operational arrangements.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "local-response", "heading": "Local response capacity and the distribution of risk", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The HNRP’s Humanitarian Reset approach strengthens integrated response in priority localities and recognises that local responders face violence and disruption themselves. Its accountability analysis records substantial feedback activity but also persistent uncertainty among communities about how to contact aid organisations.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Local presence can enable access that an international organisation cannot maintain, but it does not remove the costs or risks of delivery. When local teams absorb currency movements, delayed transfers, reporting demands and physical danger without adequate support, a superficially efficient partnership can deplete the very capacity on which the response depends. Stronger localisation is therefore a financing and decision-making question as well as a question of who performs activities.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Accountability has an allocation function here. Feedback can reveal that a distribution site is inaccessible, that an apparently functional payment channel excludes women, or that an essential referral has stopped. These findings change which delivery arrangement merits funding. Counting meetings or closed complaints cannot establish whether affected people can influence that choice, particularly when connectivity, disability or displacement prevents participation.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan" ] } ] }, { "id": "outlook", "heading": "Conditional outlook and what would change the analysis", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "If cross-line and cross-border access becomes more predictable, the immediate opportunity is to restore depleted supply pipelines and regular service coverage in the hardest-hit areas. The useful signals would be completed deliveries, shorter delays and continuity of care, rather than permissions or funding announcements alone. The October ministerial statement identifies these access barriers as central to famine prevention.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "famine" ] }, { "text": "If conflict further isolates communities or displaces them again, the balance shifts towards mobile services, alternative supply routes and support to locally led responses. A national improvement in reported reach would not rule out deterioration in inaccessible pockets. Locality-level hunger evidence, treatment interruptions and movement restrictions would be more consequential than a countrywide average. This is a conditional interpretation, not a prediction of the next military development.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "famine" ] }, { "text": "If return continues in relatively accessible areas without parallel restoration of basic services, a second pressure develops outside the most visible conflict hotspots. Demand can rise faster than water, health and education capacity. The assessment would improve with evidence that returning households can use functioning services and sustain basic consumption; movement counts alone would leave the underlying durability question unresolved.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "regional" ] } ] } ], "watchpoints": [ "Local changes in access and the situation in Darfur and Kordofan.", "New IPC assessments, disease surveillance and treatment-service continuity.", "Returns, new displacement and practical support reaching local responders." ], "relatedDonors": [ { "label": "DG ECHO donor reference", "path": "/donors/echo/" }, { "label": "Sida donor reference", "path": "/donors/sida/" }, { "label": "FCDO donor reference", "path": "/donors/fcdo/" } ], "keyFindings": [ "Sudan’s smaller 2026 appeal reflects a narrower survival package, rather than falling need.", "Food security, WASH, health and nutrition dominate the prioritised sector request; protection retains almost its full requested envelope.", "Access, usable cash and the survival of local response networks can determine the value of additional funding." ], "sectorPriorities": { "basis": "Country-cluster requests in the 2026 HNRP, printed page 2. Ranked by prioritised requirements; amounts rounded in the source.", "edition": "2026 HNRP", "source": "budget", "orderBy": "prioritisedUSD", "limits": "Requested funding, not commitments or receipts. The separate US$526.7 million refugee response inside Sudan is excluded from these sector rows. Cash is a modality; sector cash can also be included within cluster budgets.", "rows": [ { "sector": "Food security and livelihoods", "requirementUSD": 645000000, "prioritisedUSD": 424000000, "priorityRationale": "The largest envelope supports survival assistance; access to food, household purchasing power and treatment of malnutrition remain linked.", "sources": [ "budget" ] }, { "sector": "WASH", "requirementUSD": 376000000, "prioritisedUSD": 306000000, "priorityRationale": "Water and sanitation are essential to contain disease and sustain health and nutrition outcomes.", "sources": [ "budget" ] }, { "sector": "Health", "requirementUSD": 325000000, "prioritisedUSD": 248000000, "priorityRationale": "Primary care, referral capacity and outbreak control depend on staff, supplies and functioning facilities.", "sources": [ "budget" ] }, { "sector": "Nutrition", "requirementUSD": 310000000, "prioritisedUSD": 244000000, "priorityRationale": "Treatment continuity is central to the response in areas facing severe hunger and displacement.", "sources": [ "budget" ] }, { "sector": "Protection", "requirementUSD": 240000000, "prioritisedUSD": 233000000, "priorityRationale": "The prioritised request preserves most of the full envelope, reflecting direct threats to safety and access.", "sources": [ "budget" ] }, { "sector": "Shelter and non-food items", "requirementUSD": 179000000, "prioritisedUSD": 156000000, "priorityRationale": "Support concerns repeated displacement and basic survival conditions; it is distinct from broader reconstruction.", "sources": [ "budget" ] }, { "sector": "Multi-purpose cash assistance", "requirementUSD": 121000000, "prioritisedUSD": 121000000, "priorityRationale": "The core cash envelope is preserved; effectiveness still depends on markets, transfer access and liquidity.", "sources": [ "budget" ] }, { "sector": "Education", "requirementUSD": 64000000, "prioritisedUSD": 51000000, "priorityRationale": "Emergency education remains in the survival package despite a smaller envelope than other major clusters.", "sources": [ "budget" ] } ] }, "donorComparison": [ { "donor": "DG ECHO", "priorities": "Integrated life-saving services, protection, food and cash assistance, logistics and humanitarian access.", "implication": "The operational case depends on a severe need and a credible delivery chain, including access and referrals.", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "donor": "Sida", "priorities": "Flexible, complementary multisector partners; hard-to-reach areas and local NGOs and Emergency Response Rooms.", "implication": "Adaptability and the quality of local partnerships are central; a fixed activity package can be a poor fit to moving needs.", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "donor": "FCDO", "priorities": "Protected Sudan ODA portfolio combining humanitarian response with civilian protection and conflict-related objectives.", "implication": "The broader portfolio is not a sector grant envelope; humanitarian fit must be established against the relevant programme.", "sources": [ "fcdo" ] } ] }, { "slug": "occupied-palestinian-territory", "name": "Occupied Palestinian territory", "region": "Middle East", "description": "Gaza and West Bank humanitarian needs, access constraints, response plans and the documented priorities of DG ECHO and Sida.", "summary": "Gaza’s destruction, displacement and service losses require a coordinated life-saving response. In the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, violence, movement restrictions and displacement create a different protection and access environment. Funding strategy must preserve both contexts.", "appeal": { "label": "Country appeal", "value": "US$4.1 billion", "basis": "Rounded requirement at the December 2025 launch.", "source": "gho" }, "sources": [ { "id": "gho", "title": "Global Humanitarian Overview 2026: At a glance", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/cdccb8f4-11b0-4999-bb3f-d1c54c8ff21c/GHO2026_At_a_glance_EN.pdf", "date": "2025-12-08", "scope": "Launch requirements used only for the initial selection; later plans can revise them." }, { "id": "plan", "title": "Occupied Palestinian Territory: Flash Appeal 2026", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.ochaopt.org/sites/default/files/OPT_Flash_Appeal_2026_EN_FINAL.pdf", "date": "2025-12-16", "scope": "December 2025 planning baseline; needs and targets are distinct." }, { "id": "echo", "title": "Palestine: humanitarian needs and EU response", "publisher": "DG ECHO", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/middle-east-and-northern-africa/palestine_en", "date": "2026-10-21", "scope": "Donor response and access priorities for Gaza and the West Bank." }, { "id": "sida", "title": "Humanitarian Crisis Analysis 2026: Palestine", "publisher": "Sida", "url": "https://cdn.sida.se/app/uploads/2026/04/22144136/Palestine-HCA-2026_March-2026-Short.pdf", "date": "2026-03-31", "scope": "Initial allocation strategy and partner selection, section 4." }, { "id": "children", "title": "State of Palestine: Humanitarian Action for Children 2026", "publisher": "UNICEF", "url": "https://www.unicef.org/appeals/state-of-palestine", "date": null, "scope": "September revision; an agency appeal, not the inter-agency plan.", "dateLabel": "September 2026 revision" }, { "id": "registration", "title": "Registration of international NGOs in Palestine: joint statement", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/news/registration-international-ngos-palestine-joint-statement-high-representative-kallas-and-2026-01-06_en", "date": "2026-01-06", "scope": "Dated EU position on NGO operation and humanitarian access; not a statement of current registration status." }, { "id": "fcdo", "title": "FCDO country and regional ODA programme allocations, 2026/27–2028/29", "publisher": "UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office", "url": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2026-07-16/hcws287", "date": "2026-07-16", "scope": "Country rows describe the wider ODA portfolio; allocations are not exclusively humanitarian, sector awards or open calls." } ], "sections": [ { "id": "context", "heading": "Two operational contexts within one response", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The December 2025 Flash Appeal identifies 3.62 million people in need and targets 2.97 million, with requirements of US$4.06 billion. It covers the Gaza Strip and West Bank, including East Jerusalem. These are plan estimates and intended coverage, rather than people reached.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "The appeal links Gaza’s needs to destruction and extreme deprivation. In the West Bank, it identifies demolitions, military operations, settler violence and movement restrictions as drivers of displacement and humanitarian need.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Country-level figures should not obscure the different delivery models. A Gaza programme needs evidence on supplies, service restoration and safe access under extreme disruption. West Bank programming may depend more on protection, legal assistance, displacement prevention and continuity of services under movement restrictions.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "needs", "heading": "Needs, vulnerable groups and service connections", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "UNICEF’s September appeal describes continuing displacement and child-protection risks, including family separation, psychosocial distress and grave violations. Damaged WASH and health services increase infectious-disease risks. Improvements following the October 2025 ceasefire are described as fragile and uneven.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "children" ] }, { "text": "Programme design should connect household needs with the functioning of essential services. Water supply depends on fuel, power, repairs and safe movement; healthcare depends on staff, supplies and referral routes. Explain how these dependencies will be financed and monitored, rather than counting distributions alone.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "children" ] }, { "text": "Children with disabilities, people requiring specialised care, separated children and households facing repeated displacement need accessible assistance and safe case management. Consult affected people on delivery locations, timing and complaints channels. Protection referrals must be available and confidential, not simply listed in a proposal.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "funding-logic", "heading": "Reading the sector funding priorities", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The appeal’s financial table places food security first, followed by multi-purpose cash, health and WASH. Protection, nutrition, education and shelter retain substantial separate requirements. The ordering refers to the combined Gaza and West Bank request and should not be confused with the ranking of individual donors’ awards.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "The large cash envelope is analytically important because it shows that the response is not conceived solely as imported relief commodities. However, money cannot compensate for absent supply or restricted movement. Cash can expand household choice when goods and usable payments are available; it can leave the underlying shortage unchanged when markets are constrained. The funding question is which bottleneck currently limits access to essentials, not whether cash is universally preferable to distributions.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Health and WASH requests are also interdependent. A facility may have medical staff but lack water, fuel, sanitation or referral access; additional supplies for one component may then produce little additional care. Sector budgets provide an entry point for resource prioritisation, while the operational unit of analysis often needs to be a service catchment, displacement site or connected infrastructure system. Apparent sector competition can conceal these shared dependencies.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "children" ] } ] }, { "id": "donors", "heading": "Documented donor priorities", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "DG ECHO supports humanitarian organisations in both Gaza and the West Bank. Its West Bank response includes protection from forcible displacement, legal aid, emergency support and access to shelter and water, while its wider response also supports safe education and healthcare.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "text": "Sida’s March analysis prioritises severe needs, access to basic services and partners able to operate under constrained access. It seeks complementary sector capacity and supply access into Gaza, protection in the West Bank, and greater use of cash and vouchers. It also identifies repairs to water infrastructure as a potential early recovery contribution.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "text": "Cash requires evidence of market availability, safe access and household purchasing power. Infrastructure repair requires access, technical capacity and a maintenance arrangement. Neither modality should be selected merely because a donor document mentions it. Explain the conditions under which the chosen approach remains appropriate and when it would change.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "gaza-west-bank", "heading": "Geographic differentiation and displaced populations", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The appeal allocates US$3.72 billion of its request to Gaza and US$351.2 million to the West Bank. Its population estimates and targets differ between these two areas. That distribution reflects the plan’s scale and activities, not a finding that protection risks in the West Bank are marginal.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "In Gaza, repeated movement and damaged service networks weaken the usefulness of static assumptions about where people live and how they obtain assistance. The same household can need food, safe water, treatment and shelter at different locations over time. Funding that preserves continuity and information across those movements may be more useful than expanding separate activities whose recipients cannot complete the linked service pathway.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "children" ] }, { "text": "In the West Bank, protection, legal assistance and continuity of water, shelter and livelihoods can affect whether households are displaced or remain exposed to coercion and violence. The outputs can look less visible than large distributions, while the consequences of losing access or land are profound. A funding strategy based only on aggregate delivery volume risks systematically favouring the larger, easier-to-count activity over a context-specific protection outcome.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "echo", "sida" ] } ] }, { "id": "access", "heading": "Access and organisational feasibility", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The Flash Appeal makes predictable crossings, entry of critical items, visas, movement permits, humanitarian coordination and timely flexible funding central to response feasibility.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "In January 2026 the European Commission called for sustained, predictable operation of international NGOs and opposed implementation of the registration law in its then-current form. The statement establishes the EU’s dated position; it does not verify an organisation’s present authorisation.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "registration" ] }, { "text": "Before claiming deliverability, establish the current registration and permit situation, procurement and import feasibility, movement arrangements and referral capacity with operational partners. Distinguish resources procured, supplies entering the territory and assistance actually received. These stages cannot be treated as equivalent results.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "operating-economics", "heading": "Operating costs and the humanitarian–recovery boundary", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The appeal uses activity-based costing. Its costing section identifies clearance delays, item rejection, demurrage, restricted crossings and inadequate warehousing as factors increasing delivery costs. It includes early recovery when this enables humanitarian delivery or provides a more efficient way to meet urgent needs.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "A high unit cost therefore does not automatically demonstrate inefficiency, and a low one does not demonstrate effectiveness. Delays can increase storage and transport costs while reducing the usefulness of assistance received late. Comparisons need equivalent geography, access conditions, service quality and population barriers. Funding an enabling function can reduce costs across several sectors even when that function does not itself record a large beneficiary total.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Repairing a water network or clearing a safe route to a service may be justified by an immediate humanitarian result. That does not make all reconstruction activities interchangeable with emergency assistance. The distinction depends on the activity’s purpose, time horizon, access and practical contribution to essential services. Donor portfolios may contain both humanitarian and recovery instruments, but their eligibility and accountability arrangements remain separate.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "fcdo" ] } ] }, { "id": "local-capacity", "heading": "Local capacity, coordination and protection of choice", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The appeal identifies strong national organisational capacity alongside material damage to women-led organisations’ premises and equipment. It describes common service information and community feedback arrangements intended to make assistance more accessible and accountable.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Local organisations are not simply an alternative last-mile delivery resource. Their ability to retain staff, communicate with communities and sustain trusted referrals is part of response capacity. Repeated interruptions or unfunded operating costs can erode that capacity even when project outputs temporarily continue. A credible localisation approach therefore concerns financing, authority and institutional survival as well as the proportion of activities implemented locally.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Affected people’s choices are constrained by safety, mobility, disability, caregiving and the location of functioning services. Nominal availability is not equivalent to usable access. Donor comparison is strongest when it explains which particular barrier a funded intervention reduces, and how communities’ experience of receiving assistance can change its design. A common coordination structure is valuable only if it improves those practical connections.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "children", "plan" ] } ] }, { "id": "outlook", "heading": "Conditional outlook and key evidence gaps", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "If crossings, staff permissions and internal movement become more predictable, partners could expand supply and restore connected services more consistently. Evidence of improvement would include actual entry and onward distribution of essential goods, functioning referrals and continuity of service. A higher volume cleared at one stage of the pipeline would be insufficient to establish the final household outcome.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "registration" ] }, { "text": "If access tightens or infrastructure is disrupted again, apparent gains in nutrition, public health or learning access can reverse quickly. The case for flexible funding strengthens where it protects service continuity or permits an appropriate change of modality. This is a conditional risk assessment, not a claim that every locality will deteriorate or that a particular funding announcement can avert the scenario.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "children", "echo" ] }, { "text": "If recovery finance expands, its contribution should be assessed alongside continuing emergency coverage rather than assumed to replace it. Household access, service operation and protection conditions would determine whether a transition is real. Until those are demonstrated, national appeal totals, agency targets and donor pledges should remain separate measures with their own dates, populations and limitations.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "fcdo" ] } ] } ], "watchpoints": [ "Changes in crossings, movement permissions, NGO operation and essential supply entry.", "Availability of health, WASH, nutrition and child-protection services.", "Displacement and protection risks in Gaza and the West Bank, assessed separately." ], "relatedDonors": [ { "label": "DG ECHO donor reference", "path": "/donors/echo/" }, { "label": "Sida donor reference", "path": "/donors/sida/" }, { "label": "FCDO donor reference", "path": "/donors/fcdo/" } ], "keyFindings": [ "Food security and multi-purpose cash are the two largest requests in the 2026 appeal; health and WASH follow.", "Access is a binding constraint: money, procured supplies and assistance received are different stages of response.", "Gaza’s service-restoration needs and the West Bank’s protection and displacement pressures require different funding arguments." ], "sectorPriorities": { "basis": "2026 Flash Appeal, printed page 3: full requirements for Gaza and the West Bank combined. Ranked by the published request; the source gives no separate prioritised column.", "edition": "December 2025 Flash Appeal", "source": "plan", "orderBy": "requirementUSD", "limits": "Requested budgets, not donor commitments or receipts. Multi-purpose cash is a modality and is shown because it has a separate appeal envelope. Food security is rounded to US$1.3 billion in the source; amounts below it are shown to one decimal million.", "rows": [ { "sector": "Food security", "requirementUSD": 1300000000, "prioritisedUSD": null, "priorityRationale": "The largest request addresses continuing food access needs and includes both Gaza and West Bank activities.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Multi-purpose cash assistance", "requirementUSD": 592600000, "prioritisedUSD": null, "priorityRationale": "The second-largest request reflects substantial planned household support; access to goods and usable payment channels remains decisive.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Health", "requirementUSD": 485800000, "prioritisedUSD": null, "priorityRationale": "Emergency and essential care depend on supplies, functioning facilities and safe referral or evacuation routes.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "WASH", "requirementUSD": 473500000, "prioritisedUSD": null, "priorityRationale": "Water, sanitation and hygiene connect immediate survival with prevention of disease and service restoration.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Protection", "requirementUSD": 332700000, "prioritisedUSD": null, "priorityRationale": "Direct protection, legal and specialised services complement protection mainstreamed throughout the response.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Nutrition", "requirementUSD": 231600000, "prioritisedUSD": null, "priorityRationale": "Treatment and prevention require reliable access and connections with food, water and healthcare.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Education", "requirementUSD": 197700000, "prioritisedUSD": null, "priorityRationale": "Safe learning support is linked to children’s protection, routine and service access.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Shelter", "requirementUSD": 193700000, "prioritisedUSD": null, "priorityRationale": "Emergency shelter responds to displacement and exposure; it is distinct from the wider reconstruction requirement.", "sources": [ "plan" ] } ] }, "donorComparison": [ { "donor": "DG ECHO", "priorities": "Life-saving assistance in Gaza and West Bank protection, legal aid and essential services.", "implication": "A single national proposal narrative can obscure distinct access and protection problems in the two geographies.", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "donor": "Sida", "priorities": "Acute needs, access, complementary partners, cash and vouchers, and efficient early recovery contributions.", "implication": "Modality choice depends on markets and access; infrastructure repair needs a specific humanitarian benefit.", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "donor": "FCDO", "priorities": "Humanitarian assistance, especially in Gaza, alongside early recovery, institutions and economic development.", "implication": "Its protected ODA portfolio contains different instruments; it is not an exclusively humanitarian sector allocation.", "sources": [ "fcdo" ] } ] }, { "slug": "syria", "name": "Syria", "region": "Middle East", "description": "Syria’s humanitarian needs, return and recovery challenges, protection risks and the 2026 response priorities of DG ECHO and Sida.", "summary": "Political transition and population returns have changed access and delivery arrangements, while essential services, housing and livelihoods remain damaged. Humanitarian assistance must address severe needs without assuming that return or improved access is equivalent to recovery.", "appeal": { "label": "Country appeal", "value": "US$3.2 billion", "basis": "Rounded requirement at the December 2025 launch.", "source": "gho" }, "sources": [ { "id": "gho", "title": "Global Humanitarian Overview 2026: At a glance", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/cdccb8f4-11b0-4999-bb3f-d1c54c8ff21c/GHO2026_At_a_glance_EN.pdf", "date": "2025-12-08", "scope": "Launch requirements used only for the initial selection; later plans can revise them." }, { "id": "echo", "title": "Syria: humanitarian needs and EU response", "publisher": "DG ECHO", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/middle-east-and-northern-africa/syria_en", "date": "2026-05-08", "scope": "Country response priorities; some older figures remain in captions and are not used here." }, { "id": "sida", "title": "Humanitarian Crisis Analysis 2026: Syria", "publisher": "Sida", "url": "https://cdn.sida.se/app/uploads/2026/04/22144113/Syria-HCA-2026_March-2026-Short.pdf", "date": "2026-03-31", "scope": "Initial donor allocation preferences, section 4; its planning figures precede the April HNRP." }, { "id": "children", "title": "Syrian Arab Republic: Humanitarian Action for Children 2026, revision 1", "publisher": "UNICEF", "url": "https://www.unicef.org/media/183571/file/2026-HAC-Syrian-Arab-Republic-Revision1.pdf", "date": null, "scope": "August revision corroborates the updated HNRP figures and child-focused response.", "dateLabel": "August 2026 revision" }, { "id": "iom", "title": "Syrian Arab Republic Crisis Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "IOM", "url": "https://crisisresponse.iom.int/response/syrian-arab-republic-crisis-response-plan-2026", "date": null, "scope": "Agency response strategy for displacement and reintegration; dynamic page, date of current text unavailable." }, { "id": "fcdo", "title": "FCDO country and regional ODA programme allocations, 2026/27–2028/29", "publisher": "UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office", "url": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2026-07-16/hcws287", "date": "2026-07-16", "scope": "Country rows describe the wider ODA portfolio; allocations are not exclusively humanitarian, sector awards or open calls." }, { "id": "plan", "title": "Syrian Arab Republic: 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan", "publisher": "OCHA and humanitarian partners", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/28e3e5cb-a476-44ee-9cb7-f69625bdf31a/syrian_arab_republic_2026_humanitarian_needs_and_response_plan.pdf", "date": "2026-04-02", "scope": "Sector budgets printed page 3; prioritisation pages 21–24; humanitarian response strategy and recovery interface." } ], "sections": [ { "id": "context", "heading": "Transition, displacement and persistent need", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "DG ECHO describes a country undergoing political and social transition after December 2024, with people returning to areas where housing, infrastructure and public services are extensively damaged. Protection concerns include explosive ordnance, missing civil documentation, gender-based violence, early marriage and child labour.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "text": "UNICEF’s August appeal revision cites 15.6 million people in need and an inter-agency HNRP target of 8.6 million. It explains that revised agency targets reflect sharper prioritisation and the funding outlook. These later planning figures should not be confused with the earlier GHO launch baseline.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "children" ] }, { "text": "The planning problem is simultaneous: maintain support to people still displaced, meet needs in areas receiving returnees and preserve services for existing residents. Focusing only on returns can shift resources away from underserved camps or neighbourhoods without establishing that the receiving areas can sustain additional demand.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "needs", "heading": "Protection and essential-service priorities", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The Commission identifies severely constrained healthcare, food insecurity, damaged water systems and disrupted education. Its response links life-saving assistance with improved access to basic services, including health, WASH, protection and shelter.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "text": "IOM’s response includes protection, legal assistance and civil documentation, housing and property issues, psychosocial support and post-return monitoring. Its approach connects community participation and local service restoration with displacement solutions.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "iom" ] }, { "text": "A service-rehabilitation project needs more than an engineering scope. Assess who can use the facility, staffing and operating costs, documentation barriers and whether people with disabilities can reach it. In contaminated areas, safe access and explosive-ordnance risk must be addressed by competent actors before activities proceed.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "funding-logic", "heading": "What the sector requests say about response priorities", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The April HNRP targets all people with extreme inter-sectoral needs and a portion of those with severe needs, while identifying 4.3 million people for the prioritised response. It explicitly attributes the restricted scope to resource constraints. Food security and agricultural livelihoods carry the largest prioritised request, followed by education, WASH and health.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Education’s position in the funding priorities matters. A purely food-and-health account of Syria would miss both the scale of disrupted learning and its relationship with protection and recovery. However, a larger request does not make one sector intrinsically more urgent for every locality. The budget reflects intended activities, target groups and costs; a smaller protection or nutrition envelope can address highly consequential risks for a more narrowly defined population.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "children" ] }, { "text": "The full and prioritised columns also distinguish different planning questions. From the rounded source figures, shelter retains about 72% of its full request, while food security retains about 52%. This is a comparison of planned envelopes, not of money secured or needs covered. It shows why the largest total request and the functions most strongly preserved during prioritisation are related but different indicators of funding emphasis.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan" ] } ] }, { "id": "donors", "heading": "Documented donor priorities", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "DG ECHO’s 2026 humanitarian allocation is described as supporting life-saving emergency response and protection throughout Syria. Its country factsheet includes support to basic services as part of the response. This is distinct from the EU’s wider development, stabilisation and reconstruction assistance.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "text": "Sida’s March allocation analysis favours partners able to reach severe and underserved needs, integrated area-based programming and appropriate cash modalities. It emphasises protection, gender, conflict sensitivity and social cohesion, with local organisations and the humanitarian fund contributing to locally led delivery. Flexible support is intended to preserve adaptation.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "text": "Donor fit rests on the relationship between a severe need, local access and a workable response. Show how the chosen area and service package were selected, which protection risks the activities reduce and how local actors influence decisions. Recovery language should not substitute for a specific, measurable humanitarian result.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "geographies", "heading": "Distinct pressures across displacement and return settings", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The HNRP identifies widespread severe needs, with the highest severity concentrated in sub-districts across the northwest, northeast and south. It addresses people in camps, out-of-camp displaced people, returnees and vulnerable residents, while describing insecurity, explosive ordnance and administrative constraints affecting operations.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "In long-standing displacement settings, a return-oriented narrative can obscure declining services for people who cannot yet leave. In receiving communities, existing residents may face the same water, housing and healthcare constraints as new arrivals. In return areas, an apparently accessible neighbourhood can still lack the service and livelihood conditions required for a household to remain. These are different mechanisms of need and cannot be resolved by the same targeting label.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "iom" ] }, { "text": "The consequence for financing is a distribution problem across places and time. Concentrating resources on highly visible return sites may leave severe out-of-camp needs uncovered; maintaining only emergency distributions may leave service bottlenecks unchanged. An area-based approach is strongest when it explains those choices and the people who would otherwise be excluded, rather than merely placing several sectors within the same administrative boundary.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "plan" ] } ] }, { "id": "returns", "heading": "Return, recovery and social cohesion", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "IOM’s plan describes support for safe, voluntary and dignified return, alongside reception, onward assistance, reintegration and post-return protection monitoring. It also identifies housing, land and property barriers and the importance of community-based planning.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "iom" ] }, { "text": "Return figures show movement, not a durable solution. Assess the safety of the receiving area, housing access, civil documentation, essential services and livelihood options. Explain how residents, returnees and people remaining displaced can influence targeting so that assistance does not deepen tensions or reward an assumed political affiliation.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] }, { "text": "Where a rehabilitation investment replaces repeated emergency provision, compare continuity, access and operating costs over the relevant period. Define who maintains the service and how quality is checked. Avoid promising a transition away from humanitarian aid before the underlying service and household conditions support it.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [] } ] }, { "id": "economy", "heading": "Livelihoods, debt and essential-service affordability", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The HNRP’s community-priority evidence places livelihoods and employment, food and healthcare among the leading unmet needs. It connects the response to critical civilian infrastructure, essential services and livelihood support while recognising persistent economic and protection pressures.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "The distinction between a service being functional and being affordable is central. A facility can reopen while transport, medicines or user costs still prevent access. A household can receive cash while debt, rent or unreliable earnings continue to dominate its budget. Service availability, household purchasing power and protection from exclusion need to be assessed together if a programme is to reduce dependence on repeated emergency assistance.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "echo" ] }, { "text": "Livelihood support also has a time horizon. Agricultural inputs or rehabilitation can contribute to household resilience only when access to land, water, safe movement and markets supports use of the investment. Where those conditions are absent, a productive asset may not generate the intended benefit. Immediate consumption support and longer-term recovery should therefore be connected without assuming that one can always substitute for the other.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ] } ] }, { "id": "transition-finance", "heading": "Humanitarian and recovery finance: overlap and limits", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "DG ECHO maintains a life-saving and protection focus, Sida emphasises integrated area-based approaches and conflict sensitivity, and the UK’s July ODA description explicitly shifts towards early recovery and essential-service access. These statements show areas of overlap, but they do not establish identical funding rules or an open application route.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo", "sida", "fcdo" ] }, { "text": "The substantive test of a recovery contribution is whether it changes people’s access to usable services or livelihoods over a credible period. Capital works alone can leave recurrent costs, staffing and maintenance unfunded. Conversely, repeatedly financing temporary provision where a sustainable repair is feasible can preserve avoidable operating costs. The preferred balance depends on the locality’s stability, service capacity and the risk borne by the people expected to use the result.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Protection and social cohesion are part of that economic analysis. Housing and property disputes, missing documents and unequal service access can block reintegration even when infrastructure improves. Assistance can also generate tension if one population category appears privileged over another with comparable needs. Donor alignment is therefore not only a choice of sector; it concerns how resources and decision-making are distributed between people sharing a place.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "iom", "sida" ] } ] }, { "id": "outlook", "heading": "Conditional outlook and evidence that would change the assessment", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "If local stability and service finance improve together, a greater share of the response could move towards sustained restoration of water, health, learning and livelihoods. Evidence would need to show functioning services that people can access and afford, rather than rehabilitation outputs alone. Safe and voluntary return would remain a household choice, not a target inferred from the availability of a funded project.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "iom" ] }, { "text": "If returns accelerate faster than local capacity, demand and housing pressure may rise even where physical access improves. The relevant warning signs would be interrupted services, deteriorating household consumption, unresolved documentation or property barriers and new displacement after return. Increased movement into an area would then indicate additional demand, not proof that the transition is working.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "iom", "plan" ] }, { "text": "If funding remains concentrated on a narrow survival package, communities with severe but deprioritised needs may deteriorate or become more dependent on negative coping. The assessment would change with credible complementary recovery finance and demonstrated service continuity. A lower appeal figure or target on its own cannot establish improvement, because scope, methodology and funding expectations also shape the published plan.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "children" ] } ] } ], "watchpoints": [ "Localised violence, new displacement and conditions in areas of return.", "Service functionality, explosive-ordnance risks and documentation barriers.", "Revised response plans, coordination arrangements and partner capacity." ], "relatedDonors": [ { "label": "DG ECHO donor reference", "path": "/donors/echo/" }, { "label": "Sida donor reference", "path": "/donors/sida/" }, { "label": "FCDO donor reference", "path": "/donors/fcdo/" } ], "keyFindings": [ "The April HNRP treats life-saving assistance and essential-service restoration as connected needs; return is not evidence of recovery.", "Food security is the largest prioritised request; education, WASH and health follow, with shelter also retaining a substantial core envelope.", "The funding challenge is sustaining displaced populations while rebuilding usable services in receiving and return areas." ], "sectorPriorities": { "basis": "April 2026 HNRP, printed page 3. Ranked by prioritised requirements; amounts rounded to US$ million in the source.", "edition": "April 2026 HNRP", "source": "plan", "orderBy": "prioritisedUSD", "limits": "Requested sector budgets, not commitments or receipts. The prioritised plan is narrower than the full request. Multi-purpose cash is a modality with a separate envelope; do not add it to all sector cash as though they were the same measure.", "rows": [ { "sector": "Food security and agricultural livelihoods", "requirementUSD": 982100000, "prioritisedUSD": 507300000, "priorityRationale": "The largest request links food consumption with productive capacity and livelihoods.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Education", "requirementUSD": 337200000, "prioritisedUSD": 200600000, "priorityRationale": "A major prioritised envelope addresses interrupted learning and access in high-severity areas.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "WASH", "requirementUSD": 325300000, "prioritisedUSD": 168700000, "priorityRationale": "Service restoration and safe water matter for health, displacement and the viability of return.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Health", "requirementUSD": 291600000, "prioritisedUSD": 142700000, "priorityRationale": "Essential care needs include operating services and affordable access, rather than infrastructure alone.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Shelter", "requirementUSD": 180200000, "prioritisedUSD": 130200000, "priorityRationale": "The smaller but strongly retained envelope addresses critical shelter conditions.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Protection", "requirementUSD": 252700000, "prioritisedUSD": 122700000, "priorityRationale": "Specialised services and risk reduction accompany protection integrated across other sectors.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Non-food items", "requirementUSD": 197500000, "prioritisedUSD": 105100000, "priorityRationale": "Basic household items are distinct from shelter rehabilitation and multi-purpose cash.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Multi-purpose cash", "requirementUSD": 183400000, "prioritisedUSD": 90600000, "priorityRationale": "Household choice requires functioning supply and safe, usable transfers.", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "sector": "Nutrition", "requirementUSD": 125500000, "prioritisedUSD": 57300000, "priorityRationale": "The request targets specific acute needs and should not be judged solely by its relative budget size.", "sources": [ "plan" ] } ] }, "donorComparison": [ { "donor": "DG ECHO", "priorities": "Life-saving response, protection and improved access to basic services across Syria.", "implication": "The humanitarian rationale remains specific even where activities contribute to early recovery.", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "donor": "Sida", "priorities": "Area-based multisector responses, cash where appropriate, conflict sensitivity and local organisations.", "implication": "The distribution of services between returnees, residents and people still displaced is central to programme quality.", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "donor": "FCDO", "priorities": "A humanitarian and fragility portfolio shifting towards early recovery and essential-service access.", "implication": "A recovery contribution needs functioning services and realistic operating arrangements; wider ODA is not a single humanitarian grant.", "sources": [ "fcdo" ] } ] }, { "slug": "yemen", "name": "Yemen", "region": "Middle East", "description": "Yemen’s humanitarian needs, food and health response, operational constraints and DG ECHO and Sida priorities, with dated official sources.", "summary": "Conflict, economic fragmentation and damaged services combine with hunger, malnutrition and disease. Response design must account for renewed displacement, different access conditions and the practical ability of local partners and households to obtain supplies and use assistance.", "appeal": { "label": "Country appeal", "value": "US$2.5 billion", "basis": "Rounded requirement at the December 2025 launch.", "source": "gho" }, "sources": [ { "id": "gho", "title": "Global Humanitarian Overview 2026: At a glance", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/cdccb8f4-11b0-4999-bb3f-d1c54c8ff21c/GHO2026_At_a_glance_EN.pdf", "date": "2025-12-08", "scope": "Launch requirements used only for the initial selection; later plans can revise them." }, { "id": "plan", "title": "Yemen Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "OCHA and humanitarian partners", "url": "https://yemen.un.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Yemen_2026_HNRP_EN_final.pdf#page=2", "date": "2026-03-18", "scope": "March 2026 HNRP, page 2 sector full and prioritised requirements; section 2.8 costing." }, { "id": "echo", "title": "Yemen: humanitarian needs and EU response", "publisher": "DG ECHO", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/middle-east-and-northern-africa/yemen_en", "date": "2026-10-22", "scope": "Country response includes renewed hostilities and displacement since September 2026." }, { "id": "sida", "title": "Humanitarian Crisis Analysis 2026: Yemen", "publisher": "Sida", "url": "https://cdn.sida.se/app/uploads/2026/04/22144054/Yemen-HCA-2026_March-2026-Short.pdf", "date": "2026-03-31", "scope": "Initial allocation preferences and geographic partner capacity, section 4." }, { "id": "health", "title": "Yemen: WHO Health Emergency Appeal 2026", "publisher": "WHO", "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/yemen--who-health-emergency-appeal-2026", "date": "2026-02-03", "scope": "Health-sector strategy; its earlier needs estimates differ from the March inter-agency plan." }, { "id": "iom", "title": "Yemen Crisis Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "IOM", "url": "https://crisisresponse.iom.int/response/yemen-crisis-response-plan-2026/year/2026", "date": null, "scope": "Agency plan; the current text includes September developments, but its update date is unavailable." }, { "id": "uk", "title": "UK aid spending to 2029", "publisher": "Independent Commission for Aid Impact", "url": "https://icai.independent.gov.uk/html-version/uk-aid-spending-to-2029/", "date": null, "scope": "Independent statutory UK aid watchdog analysis of announced multi-year allocations; country budgets are not humanitarian-only.", "dateLabel": "2026" }, { "id": "ukgov", "title": "UK steps up humanitarian support for vulnerable civilians in Yemen", "publisher": "FCDO", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-steps-up-humanitarian-support-for-vulnerable-civilians-in-yemen-following-houthi-escalation", "date": "2026-09-25", "scope": "£10 million within the £104 million Yemen ODA allocation, delivered through named UN partners in government-controlled areas." } ], "sections": [ { "id": "context", "heading": "Overlapping conflict, economic and service crises", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The March HNRP estimates 22.3 million people in need, targets 12 million and prioritises 9.4 million. It requests US$2.16 billion for the full target and US$1.6 billion for prioritised activities. Neither target is a count of people actually reached.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "The plan identifies conflict, economic deterioration, displacement, commodity prices, climate shocks and disease as interacting drivers. Its activity-based costing uses 2025 price baselines and partner costs, with adjustments for geography, procurement and access.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "The gap between people in need and the smaller prioritised group is a planning boundary under constrained resources, not evidence that those outside the priority group have no serious need. Activity-based budgets make delivery assumptions more explicit, but price changes, route disruption and scarce staff can make a previously costed package insufficient.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "DG ECHO’s October country overview describes renewed hostilities since September and additional displacement and damage. Its update comes after the March plan and is not a replacement for that plan’s national baseline.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo" ] } ] }, { "id": "geography", "heading": "Different constraints across communities", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "Sida’s March assessment describes reduced UN presence and the withdrawal of some organisations in northern areas, alongside insecurity, political instability and economic decline in the south. It identifies movement restrictions on female staff and bureaucratic obstacles as barriers to assessment and delivery.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "text": "North and south are not uniform operating environments. Authority, access, market conditions and partner presence vary within each. A provider’s ability to work across both is important, but a national footprint cannot establish access to every settlement or community. Reduced assessment coverage can make an inaccessible area appear less urgent simply because evidence is thinner.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "plan" ] }, { "text": "The HNRP identifies heightened risks for displaced people, women and girls, people with disabilities, migrants, refugees and Muhamasheen. IOM describes mobility restrictions and detention risks for migrants, as well as liquidity problems affecting transactions and public salaries.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan", "iom" ] }, { "text": "These groups are not interchangeable. A displaced family outside a formal site may miss site-based distributions; a migrant may avoid a service because of detention or documentation fears; a person with a disability may be unable to travel to a distribution point. Community consultation has to accommodate those different constraints rather than treating one community representative as a proxy for everyone.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "iom" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ], "text": "The HNRP’s severity map and its population targets describe broad patterns, while the practical unit of delivery is often a community, clinic catchment or displacement site. A governorate can contain both accessible markets and isolated settlements. Concentrating on accessible sites can improve apparent coverage while leaving people who cannot travel, including households outside formal sites, with higher costs and fewer choices." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "iom" ], "text": "Northern restrictions and the scale-back of some organisations create a different operational problem from economic deterioration and insecurity in southern areas. A partner able to negotiate access in one place may not be able to transfer the same model to another authority or route. In both settings, community trust and safe feedback can help reveal exclusion, but they do not eliminate the danger of retaliation or replace independent access." } ] }, { "id": "services", "heading": "Why food and health cannot be separated", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "Food security and agriculture is the largest HNRP sector request. WHO’s February health appeal describes pressure on essential care and risks from cholera, malaria, dengue and vaccine-preventable diseases. The WHO appeal is a health-sector document with its own earlier estimates.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan", "health" ] }, { "text": "A household can face food insecurity because earnings fall or prices rise even when supplies exist in a market. Malnutrition and infection can reinforce one another, while water interruption increases disease exposure. Food support, nutrition treatment, functioning primary care and safe water in the same catchment area are therefore complementary; success in one sector cannot be inferred from expenditure in another.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "health" ] }, { "text": "Screening children is useful only when therapeutic supplies, trained personnel and a safe referral route are available. A facility’s nominal existence does not establish that it is staffed, affordable or accessible to women and people with disabilities. Outbreak surveillance also depends on the capacity to confirm cases and act on them, not just the collection of reports.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "health", "plan" ] }, { "text": "When resources contract, prioritising the most immediately life-saving care may be unavoidable. But withdrawing prevention, water maintenance or community outreach can increase future disease and treatment costs. The trade-off is temporal as well as geographic: savings this month can create larger needs later.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "health" ], "text": "The relationship between nutrition and health is also a funding relationship. A clinic may be financed to diagnose severe malnutrition while therapeutic supplies, transport or follow-up services are funded through another channel. If one component stops, the return on the others falls. A single-sector output can therefore look satisfactory at the same time as a child’s full treatment pathway fails." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "health" ], "text": "The prioritised request is a subset of the full response, and its ordering differs from the full-plan budget. This matters for interpreting the tables: a high prioritised amount describes the activities selected for urgent funding, not the amount already available. The plan’s 2025 price assumptions may also be overtaken by currency, fuel or transport changes; a fixed grant can purchase fewer treatments or deliveries without a change to its face value." } ] }, { "id": "delivery", "heading": "Markets, liquidity and the cost of access", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "IOM identifies liquidity problems affecting transactions and public salaries, with particular consequences for local NGOs. The HNRP’s costing acknowledges variation in logistics, procurement and delivery costs in hard-to-reach locations.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "iom", "plan" ] }, { "text": "Cash transfers preserve choice only if recipients can obtain them safely and buy the goods they need at workable prices. Liquidity shortages can affect both the household receiving cash and the local organisation paying staff or suppliers. In-kind aid may be necessary where markets or payment systems fail, but carries procurement, transport, storage and diversion risks of its own.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "iom", "plan" ] }, { "text": "Local organisations can have knowledge and access that larger agencies lack, especially where international presence has contracted. That does not make risk disappear: delayed payments, compliance costs and security burdens may be pushed downstream. Adequate operating resources and genuine influence over decisions affect whether local capacity survives beyond a short grant.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "iom" ] }, { "text": "Restrictive conditions can also reduce independent verification. Remote monitoring may maintain some oversight but cannot replace private, safe access to affected people. A low-cost operation that misses excluded households or cannot verify referral outcomes is not necessarily efficient.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "plan" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "iom", "sida" ], "text": "The costs of liquidity shortages are not confined to the transfer recipient. When a local organisation cannot pay workers or transport providers on time, a planned distribution can be delayed even if funding has been formally committed. Staff retention, supplier credit and cash handling all affect whether an allocation becomes assistance. Pre-financing or predictable payment schedules can matter operationally, but their feasibility depends on the payment system and agreements in the relevant area." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "iom" ], "text": "Choice of modality also distributes risk differently. A household receiving cash may be exposed to price increases or travel to a payment point; in-kind assistance exposes the supply chain to import, storage and onward transport constraints. Vouchers depend on participating traders having stocks. Comparison of delivery costs alone misses those household and partner burdens, and a change in market function may reverse the earlier choice." } ] }, { "id": "donors", "heading": "Donor priorities and funding choices", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "ECHO describes support across food, nutrition, health, water, protection and rapid response. Sida’s March initial allocation is protection-oriented and focuses on food security, WASH, health and nutrition; it selected partners partly for their ability to operate under different authorities in both north and south.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Sida identified five initial partners and stated that no multi-year funding would be provided in 2026 under the circumstances described in its March analysis. It identified direct local partnerships or NGO consortia as a subject for later consideration, not an announced funding window.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "text": "The UK’s Independent Commission for Aid Impact describes planned reductions in 2026–27 country allocations for a group of protracted crises including Yemen. Its analysis concerns broader country ODA allocations and cannot be read as a reduction of the same size in a specific humanitarian programme.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "uk" ] }, { "text": "The donor documents reveal different units of decision. ECHO’s country overview describes its response portfolio; Sida discloses partner and geographic selection in a dated initial allocation; the UK watchdog assesses a wider aid budget. These are complementary signals of possible resource pressure, not comparable award tables or evidence of an open opportunity.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "echo", "sida", "uk" ] }, { "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "ukgov" ], "text": "On 25 September the FCDO announced £10 million for displaced civilians in Government of Yemen-controlled areas, including food, child nutrition, healthcare and vaccines. The department said this was part of its £104 million Yemen ODA allocation and identified WFP, IOM and UNICEF as delivery partners; it is not an additional £10 million on top of that allocation." } ] }, { "id": "outlook", "heading": "What could change the response", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "If fighting or restrictions intensify, rapid response may be constrained by who can travel, procure and safely assess needs, not just by the amount pledged. If markets function but liquidity deteriorates, cash assistance can lose value or become inaccessible; if supply routes fail, in-kind delivery can also stall.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "echo", "plan", "iom" ] }, { "text": "A more favourable outlook would require sustained service operation, safe humanitarian access and resources for the full care pathway. Even with improved access, recovery of salaries, purchasing power and public services is slower than a one-off distribution. Changes in frontlines and local authority arrangements mean March assumptions require renewed local evidence.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "health", "sida" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "echo", "iom" ], "text": "One observable trigger would be a rise in newly displaced households combined with closure or reduced availability of a road to the places they have reached. If that occurs, the limiting factor may be safe last-mile transport and accessible temporary shelter rather than the availability of funds at national level. If routes remain open but local prices rise faster than transfer values, purchasing power and the adequacy of cash support become more consequential." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "health", "plan", "sida" ], "text": "A second trigger is a reported fall in functioning health or water services alongside increasing suspected outbreak cases. That combination would make treatment, safe water and surveillance capacity jointly important; more screening alone would not restore the pathway. A third is the loss of local staff or a pause in partner payments: reported commitments could remain stable while actual delivery declines. These are scenarios grounded in the documented constraints, not forecasts of a particular outcome." } ] } ], "watchpoints": [ "New displacement, frontline changes and service disruptions after the September escalation.", "Disease outbreaks, nutrition treatment and referral continuity.", "Local prices, liquidity, supply access and current partner capacity by location." ], "relatedDonors": [ { "label": "DG ECHO donor reference", "path": "/donors/echo/" }, { "label": "Sida donor reference", "path": "/donors/sida/" } ], "keyFindings": [ "The March plan distinguishes 22.3 million people in need from 12 million targeted and 9.4 million prioritised.", "Hunger and illness are connected to weak services, high costs and uneven operating conditions across the north and south.", "Restrictions and liquidity problems can move delivery costs and risks onto local organisations and households." ], "donorComparison": [ { "donor": "DG ECHO", "priorities": "Food, nutrition, health, WASH, protection and rapid response.", "implication": "The country overview describes a broad emergency portfolio and changing access conditions.", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "donor": "Sida", "priorities": "Protection-oriented support and partner capacity across north and south.", "implication": "Its March initial allocation describes named partners and capacity criteria; it is not an open call.", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "donor": "FCDO", "priorities": "September £10 million package within Yemen’s £104 million ODA allocation: food, nutrition, healthcare and vaccines for displaced people in government-controlled areas.", "implication": "The dated allocation identifies its geography and UN delivery partners; it is not an open grant or a separate addition to the country allocation.", "sources": [ "ukgov" ] } ], "sectorPriorities": { "basis": "Descending prioritised HNRP cluster requirements, with the full-plan request shown alongside, US dollars.", "edition": "March 2026 HNRP, page 2.", "source": "plan", "rows": [ { "sector": "Food Security and Agriculture", "requirementUSD": 900000000, "prioritisedUSD": 700000000, "priorityRationale": "Largest prioritised requirement; ECHO and Sida also identify food support.", "sources": [ "plan", "echo", "sida" ] }, { "sector": "Health", "requirementUSD": 276200000, "prioritisedUSD": 238600000, "priorityRationale": "Essential care and outbreak response face severe service constraints.", "sources": [ "plan", "health" ] }, { "sector": "Nutrition", "requirementUSD": 177200000, "prioritisedUSD": 150900000, "priorityRationale": "Treatment depends on health and safe water.", "sources": [ "plan", "health" ] }, { "sector": "Water, Sanitation and Hygiene", "requirementUSD": 178700000, "prioritisedUSD": 122400000, "priorityRationale": "Water services reduce disease risks and support nutrition outcomes.", "sources": [ "plan", "health" ] }, { "sector": "Protection", "requirementUSD": 158600000, "prioritisedUSD": 98000000, "priorityRationale": "Protection risks and access barriers affect multiple groups.", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ] }, { "sector": "Multipurpose Cash Assistance", "requirementUSD": 120000000, "prioritisedUSD": 91100000, "priorityRationale": "Cash can preserve household choice where prices, liquidity and access allow.", "sources": [ "plan", "iom" ] } ], "limits": "The prioritised amounts are a subset of full-plan requirements, not additional funding or receipts. Rankings differ from the full-plan order. Sectors and people overlap.", "orderBy": "prioritisedUSD" } }, { "slug": "ukraine", "name": "Ukraine", "region": "Europe", "description": "Ukraine’s humanitarian needs, frontline and winter response, child protection and DG ECHO and Sida priorities, grounded in official documents.", "summary": "War and attacks on homes and essential infrastructure sustain severe needs, particularly near frontlines and among displaced or less mobile people. Winter planning must connect household assistance with continuity of water, heating, healthcare, education and protection services.", "appeal": { "label": "Country appeal", "value": "US$2.3 billion", "basis": "Rounded requirement at the December 2025 launch.", "source": "gho" }, "sources": [ { "id": "gho", "title": "Global Humanitarian Overview 2026: At a glance", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/cdccb8f4-11b0-4999-bb3f-d1c54c8ff21c/GHO2026_At_a_glance_EN.pdf", "date": "2025-12-08", "scope": "Launch requirements used only for the initial selection; later plans can revise them." }, { "id": "plan", "title": "Humanitarian partners aim to reach 4.1 million people in Ukraine in 2026", "publisher": "United Nations in Ukraine / OCHA", "url": "https://ukraine.un.org/en/308290-relentless-war-ukraine-grinds-humanitarian-partners-aim-reach-41-million-people-2026", "date": "2026-01-13", "scope": "Official HNRP launch: national needs and intended reach, not achieved delivery." }, { "id": "echo", "title": "Ukraine: humanitarian needs and EU response", "publisher": "DG ECHO", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/europe/ukraine_en", "date": "2026-10-12", "scope": "Donor country overview and 2026–2027 winter priorities." }, { "id": "sida", "title": "Humanitarian Crisis Analysis 2026: Ukraine", "publisher": "Sida", "url": "https://cdn.sida.se/app/uploads/2026/04/22144106/Ukraine-HCA-2026_March-2026-Short.pdf", "date": "2026-03-31", "scope": "Initial donor allocation preferences, section 4; includes needs in occupied areas." }, { "id": "children", "title": "Ukraine and Refugee Response: Humanitarian Action for Children 2026", "publisher": "UNICEF", "url": "https://www.unicef.org/appeals/ukraine", "date": null, "scope": "July appeal includes both Ukraine and a regional refugee response; agency scope differs from HNRP.", "dateLabel": "July 2026" }, { "id": "winter", "title": "UNICEF appeals for support for children and families in Ukraine for winter", "publisher": "UNICEF", "url": "https://www.unicef.org/ukraine/en/press-releases/unicef-appeal-winter-2026-2027-response", "date": "2026-07-24", "scope": "2026–2027 winter preparedness, including energy resilience of essential services." }, { "id": "who", "title": "Ukraine: WHO seeks US$42 million in 2026 to protect health care", "publisher": "WHO", "url": "https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/06-02-2026-ukraine--who-seeks-us-42-million-in-2026-to-protect-health-care-as-war-enters-its-fifth-year", "date": "2026-02-06", "scope": "Agency health appeal and medical evacuation, not the inter-agency budget." }, { "id": "winterplan", "title": "Humanitarian community launches the Winter Response Plan", "publisher": "United Nations in Ukraine", "url": "https://ukraine.un.org/en/319798-humanitarian-community-launches-winter-response-plan-help-21-million-people-across-ukraine", "date": null, "scope": "Inter-agency October 2026–March 2027 winter plan, complementing the HNRP." }, { "id": "uk", "title": "UK aid spending to 2029", "publisher": "Independent Commission for Aid Impact", "url": "https://icai.independent.gov.uk/html-version/uk-aid-spending-to-2029/", "date": null, "scope": "Independent statutory watchdog analysis of the UK multi-year ODA allocation; includes non-humanitarian aid.", "dateLabel": "2026" }, { "id": "iom", "title": "Ukraine Crisis Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "IOM", "url": "https://crisisresponse.iom.int/response/ukraine-crisis-response-plan-2026", "date": "2026-03-06", "scope": "Agency programme in displacement, collective centres and community recovery; separate scope and budget." }, { "id": "planpdf", "title": "Ukraine Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "OCHA and humanitarian partners", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/f431c763-f667-4d8f-9120-8cf2a1dc0d6c/Ukraine%20HNRP%202026%20Humanitarian%20Needs%20and%20Response%20Plan%20EN.pdf#page=3", "date": "2026-01-13", "scope": "Pages 2–3: planned and prioritised reach, strategic priorities and cluster financial requirements." }, { "id": "ukgov", "title": "UK support to Ukraine: factsheet", "publisher": "FCDO", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-support-to-ukraine-factsheet/uk-support-to-ukraine-factsheet", "date": "2026-07-24", "scope": "Humanitarian commitments, including 2025–26 funding and the February 2026 frontline commitment; amounts are not all new or annual." } ], "sections": [ { "id": "context", "heading": "War creates geographically different needs", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The January HNRP launch estimates 10.8 million people in need across Ukraine and seeks US$2.3 billion to assist 4.1 million people. The target is planned reach, not a count of people served. Frontline and northern border communities face particularly severe needs from attacks and disrupted services.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "plan" ] }, { "text": "Sida’s March analysis says the 10.8 million estimate includes an estimated one million people in occupied territories. It describes severely limited access there and high needs near the frontline, including among older people, people with disabilities, women, children and repeatedly displaced people.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "text": "The national needs estimate includes people whose access conditions are very different. A planned response in government-controlled areas should not be presented as proof of reach in occupied territory. Limited access also limits independent assessment; a lack of current data in an inaccessible community is not evidence of an absence of need.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Frontline residents may need immediate protection, evacuation support or basic supplies after an attack. Displaced households farther away may face a different combination of rent, documentation, income and access to public services. Some people remain near the frontline because of limited mobility, care responsibilities, property or personal choice; their decisions should not be treated as a failure to evacuate.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "iom" ] }, { "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "planpdf" ], "text": "The full January HNRP identifies 3.6 million people as prioritised within its planned reach of 4.1 million, with US$2.0 billion of the US$2.3 billion requirement designated as prioritised. Its map uses a July 2025 frontline and should not be treated as a current operational map." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ], "text": "The map’s 0–20 km and 20–50 km zones help explain the plan’s concentration near the frontline, but distance alone cannot capture exposure, access to a damaged road, or an individual’s ability to move. Areas further away can still be hit by strikes or lose power and water. A programme that uses only distance to target can overlook an isolated household in a lower-intensity area or wrongly assume that everyone close to a frontline faces identical barriers." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "iom" ], "text": "The plan separates support for people who remain near the frontline from support for newly displaced people and those evacuated, post-strike response and protection for vulnerable people. These categories clarify different delivery routes, but a person can need more than one form of assistance over time. Their planning totals should not be added as unique individuals without the plan’s deduplication method." } ] }, { "id": "services", "heading": "The infrastructure behind household survival", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "UNICEF’s July winter appeal describes weakened energy and heating systems, damaged water infrastructure and planned support for heating, schools, health facilities and child protection. WHO’s February appeal includes safe medical evacuation and continuity of care. These are agency plans with their own targets and scope.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "winter", "who" ] }, { "text": "The consequences of a power failure extend beyond light and warmth: water pumping, refrigeration, medical equipment and communications can all depend on electricity. A generator protects a facility only if it has fuel, maintenance, safe installation and staff. Household heating assistance likewise depends on housing condition and whether people can use the available fuel or heating system safely.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "winter", "who" ] }, { "text": "The inter-agency winter plan and UNICEF’s winter programme have different population counts and activities. UNICEF’s planned support to a district heating system may benefit many residents, while individual cash assistance is counted differently. Adding their targets or budgets as independent totals would overstate a combined response.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "winterplan", "winter" ] }, { "text": "A service pathway must extend beyond the first contact. An injured or chronically ill person may need transport, a receiving facility, medicines and accessible accommodation. An evacuation that ends at a transit centre without onward care can move the problem rather than resolve it; the person’s consent and family circumstances matter throughout.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "who", "iom" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "winter" ], "text": "Shelter and non-food items have the largest prioritised cluster request in the January plan. This reflects the planned scale and cost of those activities, not a finding that shelter is inherently more important than protection or health. A household may need roof repairs, heating and a safe water supply at once; damage to any one can make the others less effective. Sector budgets provide a useful funding lens, but not a complete account of the services an individual needs." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "winter", "who" ], "text": "Centralised infrastructure creates a particular trade-off. Repairing a district heating network can help many households, including those who cannot manage individual heaters, but depends on the network’s condition, electricity and safe access for repair crews. Individual cash or fuel can provide an alternative for some families, while renters, people with limited mobility and households in damaged buildings may not be able to use the same option." } ] }, { "id": "protection", "heading": "Protection, displacement and choice", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "Sida identifies protection risks including attacks, explosive hazards and gender-based violence, and describes a local partner supporting evacuation, temporary shelter, psychosocial care and replacement documents. IOM’s plan includes support to displaced people in collective centres and transit sites.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida", "iom" ] }, { "text": "Evacuation, temporary shelter and return are linked but distinct decisions. Older people and people with disabilities may need accessible transport and personal assistance; people with pets, dependants or property concerns may have reasons to remain. A dignified response recognises the right to make an informed choice and does not treat leaving as the only measure of safety.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "iom" ] }, { "text": "A collective centre can provide shelter while creating privacy, accessibility or safeguarding problems. A household living outside a centre may face isolation and rent pressure without appearing in centre-based counts. Community feedback and confidential referrals are therefore part of understanding service quality, not merely a reporting formality.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "iom" ] }, { "text": "Mine and explosive-ordnance contamination can prevent farming, repair and safe movement long after active fighting shifts. Risk education and specialist clearance have different functions; assistance should not imply that a location is safe because a distribution or repair has taken place.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida" ] } ] }, { "id": "cash", "heading": "Cash, markets and local delivery", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "Sida’s March analysis encourages multipurpose cash where markets function, while leaving partners to select a suitable modality using recipient feedback. It observes that local Ukrainian organisations have substantial capacity and access in frontline areas and calls for stronger local partnerships.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "text": "Cash offers choice and can support local trade where shops, payment systems and transport work. It cannot repair a damaged network or ensure goods exist after an attack. In-kind support, direct services and cash each solve different problems; the relevant comparison is whether people can safely obtain the intended benefit, including those unable to travel or use digital systems.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "plan" ] }, { "text": "Local organisations can act quickly and understand changing neighbourhood conditions, but repeated attacks expose their staff, premises and supply routes to risk. Short funding cycles can disrupt teams precisely when continuity and trusted relationships are needed. The apparent cost of a response should include safety, accessible feedback and partner operating capacity.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "iom" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "planpdf" ], "text": "A cash transfer that reaches an account does not by itself show that a household can buy the intended goods. A person may lack documentation, a usable payment card, transport or a nearby accessible shop. In a functioning market, these barriers can make an otherwise efficient modality less inclusive. Conversely, in-kind supplies can narrow choice and involve warehousing and last-mile delivery when local traders could supply goods." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "iom" ], "text": "Sida’s support for local partners matters because proximity can reduce response time and reveal problems missed by national averages. It also raises the question of predictable financing for local staff, vehicles, insurance, accessible communication and safe feedback. A local organisation’s ability to reach a place once does not guarantee sustained access through repeated attacks or shifts in the frontline." } ] }, { "id": "donors", "heading": "Donor priorities and financial scope", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "ECHO’s country overview describes emergency response, protection and winter preparedness. Sida’s March allocation emphasises frontline needs, locally led response and cash where feasible. The two publications differ in purpose: one describes a broad country response and the other a dated initial allocation analysis.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo", "sida" ] }, { "text": "The UK’s Independent Commission for Aid Impact describes the Ukraine allocation as protected within announced multi-year UK ODA plans. That is a country-level aid budget, encompassing more than humanitarian response, rather than a commitment to any particular humanitarian sector or partner.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "uk" ] }, { "text": "The distinction matters when comparing donor signals. A protected national allocation does not guarantee that local humanitarian partners receive stable funding, and a donor’s support for cash does not imply that cash is appropriate in every location. Published strategy, actual disbursement and a partner’s eligibility are separate questions.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "echo", "sida", "uk" ] }, { "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "ukgov" ], "text": "The FCDO’s July factsheet records a £5.7 million commitment announced in February 2026 for frontline humanitarian aid and at least £100 million in humanitarian assistance committed for 2025–26, including £10 million for the Ukraine Humanitarian Fund and £8 million for targeted winter assistance. These are dated commitments and components, not separate sums to add." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "ukgov", "sida" ], "text": "Inter-agency requirements, UK commitments and Sida’s initial allocations answer different questions. The HNRP presents the cost of planned action by all participating partners; the FCDO figures describe selected UK commitments over specified periods; Sida’s analysis describes its own initial choices. Comparing them without those boundaries risks mistaking a donor contribution or an annual plan for actual funds delivered to a particular locality." } ] }, { "id": "outlook", "heading": "Winter and the conditions for recovery", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "If energy infrastructure suffers further damage during cold weather, assistance may have to shift from household heating support to emergency service continuity and repairs. Where attacks make repair crews unable to work safely, supplies alone cannot restore a network. If facilities and markets remain operational, cash and preventive repairs may preserve more choice and continuity.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "winterplan", "winter", "who" ] }, { "text": "Recovery investments can reduce repeated emergency costs where services are safe and maintenance is funded, but rebuilding in an area under recurring attack carries a risk of repeated loss. Progress should be judged by reliable access and people’s ability to choose where to live, as well as repairs completed or people counted once. Conditions can change rapidly and require current local evidence.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "plan", "iom" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "winter", "who" ], "text": "An observable winter trigger would be repeated power interruptions together with reports that heating or water systems cannot maintain service. If repair crews have access and spare parts, restoring shared systems may help many households; if attacks prevent repair, temporary local energy and accessible household assistance become more important. Either response depends on fuel, staff and maintenance, so installation alone is an incomplete indicator." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "iom", "sida" ], "text": "A second trigger is increased evacuation from a frontline area together with longer stays in transit or collective centres. This would indicate pressure on onward housing, care and documentation services as well as transport. A third is the combination of stable market stocks with a fall in payment access, or the reverse: those signals distinguish a transfer-delivery problem from a goods-supply problem and can change which assistance is workable. They are conditional cases, not predictions." } ] } ], "watchpoints": [ "Frontline shifts, new displacement and changes in safe access.", "Winter service functionality and readiness of heating, water and health systems.", "Local partner capacity, accessible assistance and verified needs in hard-to-reach areas." ], "relatedDonors": [ { "label": "DG ECHO donor reference", "path": "/donors/echo/" }, { "label": "Sida donor reference", "path": "/donors/sida/" } ], "keyFindings": [ "The greatest access and service risks concentrate near frontlines and in occupied areas, but attacks also disrupt services farther away.", "Winter assistance depends on energy, housing, water and functioning care as well as household income.", "Sida encourages cash where markets function; ECHO and the UK operate broader and differently scoped portfolios." ], "donorComparison": [ { "donor": "DG ECHO", "priorities": "Emergency response, protection and winter preparedness.", "implication": "The country overview is a broad portfolio description and is not a funding call.", "sources": [ "echo" ] }, { "donor": "Sida", "priorities": "Frontline response, locally led delivery and cash where markets function.", "implication": "Its March analysis encourages a modality while leaving partners to judge feasibility and community feedback.", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "donor": "FCDO", "priorities": "Frontline assistance and the Ukraine Humanitarian Fund and targeted winter support, in dated commitments.", "implication": "The July factsheet distinguishes a February 2026 frontline commitment from 2025–26 humanitarian support; the components are not additive.", "sources": [ "ukgov" ] } ], "sectorPriorities": { "basis": "Descending prioritised HNRP cluster requirements, US dollars; full-plan amounts are shown alongside.", "edition": "January 2026 HNRP, page 3.", "source": "planpdf", "rows": [ { "sector": "Shelter and Non-Food Items", "requirementUSD": 547000000, "prioritisedUSD": 479000000, "priorityRationale": "Largest prioritised cluster requirement; winter heating and repairs support household safety.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "winter" ] }, { "sector": "Protection", "requirementUSD": 369000000, "prioritisedUSD": 321000000, "priorityRationale": "Includes protection, child protection and gender-based violence subcategories.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ] }, { "sector": "Water, Sanitation and Hygiene", "requirementUSD": 326000000, "prioritisedUSD": 274000000, "priorityRationale": "Power and infrastructure damage interrupt water services.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "winter" ] }, { "sector": "Food Security and Livelihoods", "requirementUSD": 306000000, "prioritisedUSD": 270000000, "priorityRationale": "Includes food security and livelihoods; cash feasibility varies by market.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ] }, { "sector": "Health", "requirementUSD": 90000000, "prioritisedUSD": 82000000, "priorityRationale": "Emergency care and medical evacuation remain essential.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "who" ] }, { "sector": "Education", "requirementUSD": 59000000, "prioritisedUSD": 46000000, "priorityRationale": "Schools require safe access and energy continuity.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "winter" ] } ], "limits": "Amounts are requested, not received. Prioritised requirements are subsets of the full request, not additional sums. Cluster categories and people overlap; protection subcategories are included in overall protection and not added again. The plan separately shows US$581 million for unified cash within its overall modality breakdown; this is not an additional amount on top of the plan.", "orderBy": "prioritisedUSD" } }, { "slug": "afghanistan", "name": "Afghanistan", "region": "Asia", "description": "Afghanistan’s humanitarian needs, return pressures, restrictions on women and girls, and DG ECHO and Sida response priorities.", "summary": "Poverty, climate shocks, return movements and restrictions on women and girls overlap with fragile essential services. Response quality depends on who can actually access assistance and how programmes connect immediate relief with local service capacity.", "appeal": { "label": "Country appeal", "value": "US$1.7 billion", "basis": "Rounded requirement at the December 2025 launch.", "source": "gho" }, "sources": [ { "id": "gho", "title": "Global Humanitarian Overview 2026: At a glance", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/attachments/cdccb8f4-11b0-4999-bb3f-d1c54c8ff21c/GHO2026_At_a_glance_EN.pdf", "date": "2025-12-08", "scope": "Launch requirements used only for the initial selection; later plans can revise them." }, { "id": "plan", "title": "Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-2026-december-2025", "date": "2025-12-30", "scope": "National planning framework; targets are not actual reach." }, { "id": "echo", "title": "Afghanistan: humanitarian needs and EU response", "publisher": "DG ECHO", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/asia-and-pacific/afghanistan_en", "date": "2026-05-22", "scope": "Country response and delivery constraints, rather than an application notice." }, { "id": "sida", "title": "Humanitarian Crisis Analysis 2026: Afghanistan", "publisher": "Sida", "url": "https://cdn.sida.se/app/uploads/2026/04/22144320/Afghanistan-HCA-2026_March-2026-Short.pdf", "date": "2026-03-31", "scope": "Initial allocation preferences, with protection, gender and local-response considerations." }, { "id": "children", "title": "Afghanistan: Humanitarian Action for Children 2026", "publisher": "UNICEF", "url": "https://www.unicef.org/appeals/afghanistan", "date": null, "scope": "Agency appeal and planned sector targets; separate from the inter-agency HNRP.", "dateLabel": "December 2025" }, { "id": "evaluation", "title": "Evaluation of EU humanitarian interventions in Afghanistan, 2020–2024", "publisher": "DG ECHO", "url": "https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/evaluation-european-unions-humanitarian-interventions-afghanistan-2020-2024_en", "date": "2026-08-01", "scope": "Retrospective evaluation; findings concern 2020–2024, rather than a new funding round." }, { "id": "return", "title": "2026 Response Plan for Afghan Returnees", "publisher": "United Nations in Afghanistan", "url": "https://afghanistan.un.org/en/315785-2026-response-plan-afghan-returnees-rpar-published", "date": "2026-05-19", "scope": "Border response and reintegration in 35 priority districts; projections and separate plan scope." }, { "id": "iom", "title": "Afghanistan Crisis Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "IOM", "url": "https://crisisresponse.iom.int/response/afghanistan-crisis-response-plan-2026", "date": null, "scope": "Agency response for returnees, displacement and protection; dynamic page." }, { "id": "uk", "title": "FCDO Afghanistan Official Development Assistance results: April 2025 to March 2026", "publisher": "FCDO", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/fcdo-afghanistan-official-development-assistance-results-april-2025-to-march-2026/fcdo-afghanistan-official-development-assistance-results-april-2025-to-march-2026", "date": "2026-09-03", "scope": "Results of UK bilateral ODA programmes in financial year 2025–26, not a current call." }, { "id": "planpdf", "title": "Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026", "publisher": "OCHA", "url": "https://unhcr-sheltercluster-static.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/public/docs/AFG_Humanitarian_Needs_and_Response%20Plan_2026.pdf#page=2", "date": "2025-12-30", "scope": "Pages 2, 20–28 and 36–38: cluster requirements, returns, access and response costing." }, { "id": "ukallocation", "title": "FCDO planned ODA programme country and regional allocations 2026/27–2028/29", "publisher": "FCDO, UK Parliament", "url": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2026-07-16/hcws287", "date": "2026-07-16", "scope": "Afghanistan country row: planned bilateral ODA allocations and description; excludes other central, regional and multilateral spending and is subject to revision." } ], "sections": [ { "id": "context", "heading": "A crisis shaped by shocks and exclusion", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The December 2025 HNRP estimates 21.9 million people in need, targets 17.5 million and requests US$1.71 billion. It prioritises severe districts and verified shock-affected pockets, while recognising that drought, returns, earthquakes and disease interact with persistent economic and service deficits. These are planning estimates, not people reached.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "planpdf" ] }, { "text": "The apparent decline in the national needs estimate is not evidence that households have recovered. A response limited to the latest shock can stabilise immediate consumption while leaving the conditions that make the next shock dangerous: weak services, scarce income and exclusion from work. Conversely, a development programme without rapid-response capacity cannot substitute for food, care and protection when a new shock occurs.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf" ] }, { "text": "Sida’s 31 March analysis describes mass returns, drought, damaged livelihoods and restrictions on women and girls. It also reports that regional hostilities disrupted trade and fuel supply routes, raising costs and delaying humanitarian imports. These observations describe conditions at the time of the assessment, not a forecast of every route throughout the year.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "text": "Rural water stress, urban underemployment, disaster-affected settlements and areas receiving returnees present different combinations of needs. Severity classifications help allocate limited resources, but a district average can conceal excluded households; a shock-affected pocket in a less severe district can still require urgent assistance.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ], "text": "Geography also changes the timing of a response. High-altitude communities can become difficult to reach in winter, while agricultural households face a lean season before the harvest. Pre-positioning food, medicines or shelter supplies incurs storage costs and risks, but waiting until roads close can make even funded assistance impossible to deliver. Seasonal planning is thus a question of when an operation must be ready, not merely an annual caseload." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ], "text": "A district may be classified as highly severe because several needs coincide, but individual households within it do not have the same assets or constraints. A household with a regular income may cope differently from one headed by a woman with restricted access to work, or one caring for an older relative with a chronic condition. Aggregated targeting can miss these differences if registration assumes every household can travel or speak freely with an enumerator." } ] }, { "id": "returns", "heading": "Return is a process, not a border event", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The May 2026 returnee plan projected nearly 2.7 million arrivals from Iran and Pakistan between April and December and requested US$529.2 million for a two-track response: immediate border assistance and reintegration support in 35 priority districts. A projection is not a count of actual arrivals.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "return" ] }, { "text": "IOM describes post-arrival screening, meals, short-term accommodation, protection referrals and transport assistance, alongside case management for people with particular needs. Its agency plan has a different coverage and budget from the inter-agency plans.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "iom" ] }, { "text": "The border response addresses immediate exposure, while the decisive test comes after onward travel: a family may reach its intended destination but lack housing, income, documents or a functioning clinic. Returnees and longer-term residents compete for the same water, work and services. Area-based support can reduce that pressure, but only if resident communities and returnees both influence priorities and assistance does not depend on an assumption that all return is voluntary or sustainable.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "return", "iom" ] }, { "text": "The returnee plan and HNRP serve connected populations and may overlap. Their requirements and headcounts cannot simply be added as distinct people or a consolidated funding gap. The HNRP describes emergency action; the return plan also includes reintegration, making the gap between short-term relief and longer-term financing especially consequential.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "return" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "return", "iom" ], "text": "Reception capacity and absorption capacity have different bottlenecks. Border facilities require water, health screening, immediate shelter and onward transport; receiving districts need functioning schools and clinics, affordable housing and work over a longer period. Moving staff and funding entirely toward the border during a surge can relieve immediate congestion while leaving families with little support after arrival. Conversely, long-term investments in selected districts do not help people stranded at a crossing." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "return", "planpdf" ], "text": "The 35 districts in the returnee plan are a prioritisation of the response, not proof that all returnees settle there or that other districts face no pressure. Population movements can change a locality’s needs faster than a fixed budget or annual target can change. Community-wide investments offer a way to support residents and newcomers together, although they also require agreement on who operates and maintains a service after the emergency funding ends." } ] }, { "id": "gender", "heading": "Gender, protection and actual access", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The HNRP describes restrictions on female staff and uneven locally negotiated arrangements. The EU evaluation of 2020–2024 found persistent gaps in reaching women and girls, particularly in protection and education, while identifying benefits from flexible, multi-year and multisector support. Its findings are retrospective.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "planpdf", "evaluation" ] }, { "text": "Access to a district is not the same as access to every person in it. Restrictions on movement, education and employment can prevent a woman from using a service; restrictions on female staff can prevent an organisation from identifying her needs or offering confidential care. Gender-segregated delivery and locally negotiated arrangements may preserve some services, but add staff, transport and supervision costs and do not remove the underlying exclusion.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "evaluation" ] }, { "text": "A protection referral is meaningful only if a safe and confidential receiving service exists and the person can choose whether to use it. Collecting detailed personal information without a safe purpose can expose people to harm. Feedback from women, older people and people with disabilities needs accessible channels that do not require disclosure to gatekeepers; absence of complaints does not establish consent or equal access.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "iom" ] } ] }, { "id": "services", "heading": "Food, water and health form one survival system", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "The plan requests the largest sector amount for food security and agriculture, followed by nutrition and health. Sida’s March analysis identifies food security and WASH as priorities, linking them to nutrition and health, and calls for attention to severely food-insecure and underserved areas.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Food transfers can protect consumption during the lean season, but treatment for acute malnutrition also depends on clean water, staff, supplies and the ability to return for care. A clinic that screens children without treatment supplies produces a count rather than a complete service. Likewise, repairing a water point without funds for maintenance or safe access can leave a community no better protected when drought returns.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Cash can give households choice where goods, prices and payment access make it useful. Where markets lack food, transport is interrupted or households cannot safely collect a transfer, purchasing power alone may not deliver the intended assistance. In-kind provision, cash and support to services therefore have different logistical costs and protection consequences; no single modality is universally cheaper or more dignified.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf" ] } ] }, { "id": "donors", "heading": "Donor priorities and resource pressure", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "DG ECHO describes a multisector emergency response including food, health, nutrition, water, protection, shelter and education. Sida’s March initial allocation analysis gives particular weight to food security and WASH, linked to health and nutrition, as well as protection and returnees. These are donor-specific priorities, not universal eligibility rules.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "echo", "sida" ] }, { "text": "The FCDO’s September results publication reports what its bilateral ODA programmes supported during April 2025–March 2026. It is a retrospective results account covering broader development assistance, not a 2026 humanitarian allocation or an invitation to apply.", "kind": "fact", "sources": [ "uk" ] }, { "text": "The difference is analytical rather than a neat sector divide: ECHO presents a broad emergency portfolio; Sida explicitly explains its relative emphasis on food and water in light of previous sector funding and need; FCDO’s published results show a wider bilateral programme. Their spending periods and instruments differ, so the publications cannot be treated as a like-for-like ranking or as proof that an individual organisation is eligible.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "sida", "echo", "uk" ] }, { "text": "A lower headline cost can transfer risk to communities or local partners if transport, safe female staffing, referrals and monitoring are unfunded. Flexible resources matter because a route closure or return movement changes the cost and location of delivery; flexibility alone cannot compensate for insufficient overall funding or restrictions that prevent safe access.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ], "text": "The published sector requirements reflect the planned mix and cost of activities, not a direct measure of severity or proof that food assistance has been funded. Food has a much larger requested envelope than protection, but the latter can be essential to whether women, children or people facing violence can use other assistance safely. Dividing funding mechanically by the number of people targeted also obscures different durations, service packages and costs across sectors." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "evaluation", "sida" ], "text": "An efficient response has to account for who bears the cost of adaptation. If restrictions require separate teams, extra transport or negotiated access, a short grant that covers only commodities may leave the local partner or community to absorb these costs. Conversely, financing an adaptation that excludes women from decisions may keep a programme operating while undermining its intended outcomes. The EU’s retrospective evaluation supports examining both flexibility and the quality of access, rather than equating uninterrupted activity with equitable delivery." } ] }, { "id": "outlook", "heading": "Conditional outlook", "paragraphs": [ { "text": "If return movements exceed reception capacity, transport and community services may become the binding constraints even when commodities are available at the border. If drought deepens or trade routes remain disrupted, households may face simultaneous income loss and higher prices. If restrictions prevent female staff from working, national reach totals can improve while access for women and girls remains inadequate.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "return", "sida" ] }, { "text": "Evidence of improvement would include sustained service access and safe participation, not only completed distributions or recorded returns. District access, market conditions and the safety of referrals can change quickly; the dated plans establish a baseline rather than guaranteeing current local feasibility.", "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "evaluation", "planpdf" ] }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "return", "iom", "planpdf" ], "text": "A measurable warning of a return surge would be rising arrivals at a crossing together with longer stays or reduced access to onward transport. Under those conditions, emergency accommodation and medical referrals could become the immediate bottleneck. If arrivals slow but return districts report rising school or clinic use and housing costs, the pressure may instead shift toward the continuity of local services and household income." }, { "kind": "analysis", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ], "text": "A second trigger is a sustained rise in staple prices relative to transfer values, or traders reporting that goods cannot be replenished. In that case a cash transfer of unchanged nominal value buys less, and transport or supply support may become more important. A third is a verified loss of female staff access or a decline in women’s independent use of services; total distributions could continue while effective coverage falls. Each signal is conditional and locality-specific, not a claim that it will occur." } ] } ], "watchpoints": [ "Return movements, border conditions and capacity in receiving communities.", "Changes affecting women’s and girls’ safe access and female humanitarian staff.", "Seasonal food insecurity, climate shocks and continuity of essential services." ], "relatedDonors": [ { "label": "DG ECHO donor reference", "path": "/donors/echo/" }, { "label": "Sida donor reference", "path": "/donors/sida/" } ], "keyFindings": [ "Acute shocks overlap with structural deprivation; a smaller needs estimate does not establish recovery.", "Return assistance has to connect border reception with viable services and livelihoods in communities of arrival.", "Restrictions on women and female responders change who can actually receive assistance and raise delivery costs." ], "donorComparison": [ { "donor": "DG ECHO", "priorities": "Broad life-saving response, protection and essential services.", "implication": "The country overview describes funded priorities; its historical evaluation highlights gender access and flexibility.", "sources": [ "echo", "evaluation" ] }, { "donor": "Sida", "priorities": "Food security and WASH linked to health, nutrition and protection; returnees and severe needs.", "implication": "The March analysis explains a specific sector emphasis, with geographic and protection criteria.", "sources": [ "sida" ] }, { "donor": "FCDO", "priorities": "Planned £105 million country ODA allocation in each financial year 2026/27–2028/29 to mitigate the humanitarian crisis and strengthen resilience, especially for women and girls.", "implication": "FCDO says it will fund implementing partners including the UN and has no development partnership with the Taliban. These are planned country ODA allocations, not humanitarian grants or total UK support.", "sources": [ "ukallocation" ] } ], "sectorPriorities": { "basis": "Descending published HNRP sector requirements, in US dollars.", "edition": "December 2025 HNRP, page 2.", "source": "planpdf", "rows": [ { "sector": "Food Security and Agriculture", "requirementUSD": 651100000, "priorityRationale": "Largest HNRP requirement; Sida also stresses severe food insecurity.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ], "prioritisedUSD": null }, { "sector": "Nutrition", "requirementUSD": 298000000, "priorityRationale": "Treatment and prevention depend on health and water access.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ], "prioritisedUSD": null }, { "sector": "Health", "requirementUSD": 190800000, "priorityRationale": "Essential care and referral capacity underpin nutrition outcomes.", "sources": [ "planpdf" ], "prioritisedUSD": null }, { "sector": "Water, Sanitation and Hygiene", "requirementUSD": 163300000, "priorityRationale": "Sida explicitly prioritises underserved water needs and links to nutrition.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "sida" ], "prioritisedUSD": null }, { "sector": "Emergency Shelter and NFI", "requirementUSD": 160300000, "priorityRationale": "Disaster and return-related shelter needs require timely local delivery.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "return" ], "prioritisedUSD": null }, { "sector": "Protection", "requirementUSD": 136500000, "priorityRationale": "Safe access, referral and female staff are cross-cutting constraints.", "sources": [ "planpdf", "evaluation" ], "prioritisedUSD": null } ], "limits": "Requirements are requested amounts, not receipts or a ranking of severity; sector activities and populations overlap. Only the six largest sectors are shown.", "orderBy": "requirementUSD" } } ] }